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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/12/2024

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile for threes scored when playing away from home, tallying 4.2 per game since the start of last season.

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 37.5 minutes per game this year.

The Mavericks check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 38.4% on threes (6th-best in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, designating this as a strong matchup.

The Mavericks are expected to get a boost in plays today from squaring off against the 7th-most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Golden State Warriors).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has compiled a mere 28.3 points per game this season, significantly less than his 32.7 points per game last season.

The 3rd-least up-tempo pace road team in the NBA this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic stands to experience a decrease in output across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

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