Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 6/14/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics · Jun 14, 2024

Updated Jun 15, 2024 12:41 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 100th percentile, registering a massive 32.8 points per game this year.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.4 three-point shots per game this season, a significant increase from his 8.2 mark last season.
Luka Doncic has played 38.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 100th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the league playing at home this year.
This year, opposing starting PGs have tallied 3.0 3-pointers per game (most in the league) against the Boston Celtics, designating this as a good matchup.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has accumulated 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games when playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year at home.
The 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from facing the least up-tempo pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Celtics).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA with a mere 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.
This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

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