Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 6/12/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics · Jun 12, 2024

Updated Jun 13, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-133/+103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic places in the 100th percentile, posting a colossal 32.8 points per game this year.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.5 3-pointers per game this season, significantly more than his 8.2 rate last season.
Luka Doncic has been on the court for 38.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 100th percentile.
The Mavericks check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 3.0 three-pointers per game (most in the NBA) against the Celtics, identifying this as a strong matchup.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 3.5 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while on his home court, 1.1 higher than he's committed overall this year at home.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 20 games away from their home city, which should reduce plays for the Dallas Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 9thworst in in the league with just 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.
This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Celtics, struggling to draw fouls.

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