Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 5/15/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 15, 2024

Updated May 16, 2024 1:41 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 100th percentile, compiling an enormous 33.0 points per game this year.
Compared to last season's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from beyond the arc have surged this season to 10.5 per game.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic rates in the 99th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 37.7 minutes per game when playing on the road this year.
This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 7.7 three attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, making this a positive matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

With respect to shooting, the Mavericks's poor 43.6% field goal rate ranks 5th-fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
In contrast to last year's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of foul shot attempts has fallen this year to 8.5 foul shot attempts per game.
Luka Doncic will likely experience a decrease in efficiency for all stats on account of playing on the visting team in this contest.

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