Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 5/11/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 11, 2024

Updated May 11, 2024 7:32 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic comes in at the 100th percentile, putting up a monstrous 33.3 points per game this year.
In comparison to last year's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's shots from behind the three-point arc have jumped this year to 10.6 per game.
Luka Doncic has been on the court for 38.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 100th percentile.
The Mavericks check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 7.7 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Thunder, resulting in a good matchup.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has accumulated 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.6 higher than he's accumulated overall this year at home.
The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 9thworst in in the league with only 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

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