Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 5/3/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers · May 3, 2024

Updated May 4, 2024 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile, putting up a massive 33.6 points per game this year.
In contrast to last year's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have risen this year to 10.7 per game.
Luka Doncic has been on the court for 37.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 100th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have averaged 45.6% on shot attempts from the field (7th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Clippers, identifying this as a good matchup.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.1 more than he's tallied over the course of the year at home.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in plays today from squaring off against the 3rd-most lethargic pace road offense in the league over the last 10 games (the LA Clippers).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the league with just 9.8 offensive boards per game this year.

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