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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/10/2024

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted 49.8% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 10.2% higher than he's made from three in all games this season when playing away from home.

Compared to last year's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have jumped this year to 10.6 per game.

Luka Doncic has played 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.

In terms of scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's outstanding 120.5 points per game away from home measures as the strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.

Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have compiled 23.1 points per game (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a strong matchup for offensive production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).

The Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Relative to last season's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has regressed this season to 8.7 foul shots per game.

Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player production in all facets of the game.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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