Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 31, 2024

Updated Mar 31, 2024 11:17 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic places in the 100th percentile, registering an enormous 33.8 points per game this year.
Compared to last year's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from downtown have spiked this year to 10.3 per game.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 99th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 37.5 minutes per game this year.
In terms of shooting, the Mavericks's superb 122.0 points per game on the road rates strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have put up 12.8 points per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Rockets, labeling this as a hard matchup for offensive performance.
The Mavericks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 8.9 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 10.5 mark last season.
The matchup vs. Houston may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 1.7 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets are playing at home (least in the league).
Luka Doncic figures to suffer a drop-off in output across the board in light of playing away from home in this game.

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