Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile, putting up a monstrous 34.3 points per game this year.
In comparison to last year's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from beyond the arc have risen this year to 10.3 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic comes in at the 100th percentile for playing time, tallying a whopping 37.4 minutes per game this year.
With respect to shooting, the Mavericks's impressive 121.2 points per game measures as the strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 4.5 3-point attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Nuggets, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from being pitted against the most sluggish tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 4thworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Luka Doncic has attempted just 8.9 foul shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 10.5 mark last season.

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