Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic places in the 100th percentile, compiling a whopping 34.6 points per game this year.
Compared to last season's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have risen this season to 10.2 per game.
Luka Doncic has played 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 100th percentile.
In regard to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's exceptional 120.9 points per game settles in as the 3rd-highest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.

Favors Under

Over the last 25 games when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 2.0 three-pointers per game (7th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a hard matchup.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the slowest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Miami Heat).
The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
In comparison to last year's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of free throws has diminished this year to 9.1 free throws per game.
The matchup against Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a measly 4.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Miami Heat are away from home (7th-least in the NBA).

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