Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Washington Wizards · Feb 12, 2024

Updated Feb 13, 2024 2:09 AM UTC

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has put up 34.5 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 100th percentile.
In comparison to last year's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have surged this year to 10.4 per game.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 100th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 37.6 minutes per game this year.
The Mavericks rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. the Washington Wizards is a strong one; they have given up the 25th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (20.2).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 3rdworst in in the league with just 8.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
The Washington Wizards have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (12.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic has attempted a mere 9.4 free throws per game this year, significantly less than his 10.5 mark last year.

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