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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 1/22/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has logged 33.6 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 100th percentile.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.4 3-pointers per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 8.2 mark last year.

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 36.7 minutes per game this year.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.

The Celtics have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to increased plays for the Dallas Mavericks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 25 games.

The matchup vs. Boston is a tough one for field goals; when the Boston Celtics are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 12th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (38.1%).

Over the last 20 games, their opposition has snagged 11.7 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Celtics (retaining possessions that can produce added chances for offense).

This year, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (10th-fewest in the league) against the Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

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