Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 28, 2023 1:36 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile, posting a massive 33.7 points per game this year.
Compared to last year's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have spiked this year to 10.4 per game.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 98th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 36.5 minutes per game when playing away from home this year.
In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 116.9 points per game while on the road measures as the 6th-highest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This year, the other team has logged 107.3 points per game (fewest in the league) against the Timberwolves, identifying this as a hard matchup for offensive productivity.

Favors Under

The Dallas Mavericks are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the 10th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have nabbed 12.5 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Timberwolves (retaining possessions that can lead to more chances for offense).
Relative to last year's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has diminished this year to 8.5 foul shots per game.
Luka Doncic will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually lowers stat production in all stat categories.