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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/25/2023

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile for shots from the field, totaling 23.3 per game this year.

Compared to last season's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have risen this season to 10.2 per game.

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 97th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 35.9 minutes per game away from his home court this year.

Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have logged 29.2 points per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Phoenix Suns, designating this as a favorable matchup for offensive effectiveness.

The Mavericks have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Suns have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.

This year, opposing clubs have collected 11.6 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the Suns (maintaining possessions that can generate extra chances for offense).

In comparison to last season's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has decreased this season to 8.3 foul shots per game.

As a team, the Mavericks have been lousy at drawing fouls away from their home court: 6th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a mere 21.0 foul shots per game.

Luka Doncic ought to suffer a reduction in efficiency across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

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