Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 2:08 AM UTC

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 100th percentile for shots taken, tallying 22.8 per game this year.
In contrast to last season's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's shots from behind the three-point arc have surged this season to 10.0 per game.
Luka Doncic has played 35.6 minutes per game away from home this year, placing him in the 98th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Mavericks check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 4.9 3-point attempts per game (10th-fewest in the league) vs. the Trail Blazers, creating a difficult matchup.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA in their home stadium this year, which should decrease opportunities for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic has attempted a mere 8.0 free throws per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 10.5 mark last season.
Luka Doncic is expected to experience a decrease in productivity in all facets of the game in light of playing on the visting team in this game.

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