Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 3:38 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-140/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has successfully made a whopping 41.8% of his three-point attempts this year, significantly higher than his 32.7 rate last year.
Compared to last season's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's shots from behind the three-point arc have surged this season to 9.6 per game.
Luka Doncic has tallied 33.4 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
With respect to shooting, the Mavericks's exceptional 122.8 points per game when playing away from home comes in as the 2nd-best in the NBA this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Lakers is a difficult one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PGs have shot for the 9th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (27.3%).
The Mavericks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Lakers have allowed the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Compared to last season's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has decreased this season to 7.6 foul shots per game.
The matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers is a hard one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.7 free throws per game this year (11th-least in the NBA).