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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/15/2023

Washington Wizards vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic comes in at the 99th percentile, putting up a massive 31.1 points per game when playing away from home this year.

Compared to last year's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from beyond the arc have increased this year to 9.8 per game.

Luka Doncic has committed a measly 1.7 personal fouls per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 2.5 fouls per game last season.

The Mavericks check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The matchup against Washington is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Wizards are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 26th-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA since the start of last season (2.3).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Mavericks have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

When playing away from home, the Wizards have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.7) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Relative to last season's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has declined this season to 7.3 free throw attempts per game.

The matchup against the Washington Wizards is a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 1.8 free throws per game since the start of last season (15th-least in the league).

Luka Doncic will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court generally worsens stat production across the board.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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