Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Chicago Bulls · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 8, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored a terrific 32.7 points per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 29.0 points per game last season.
Luka Doncic has tallied 35.9 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court.
The Bulls have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (84th percentile).
The matchup against Chicago is a difficult one for scoring; when the Bulls are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot for the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (39.2%).
The Bulls have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should reduce plays for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Chicago may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.1 free throws per game over the last 25 games when the Bulls are the visiting team (15th-least in the league).