Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 5/26/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 26, 2024

Updated May 27, 2024 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.5 shots from downtown per game this season, significantly higher than his 8.2 mark last season.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 100th percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 38.2 minutes per game this year.
In terms of 3-point attempts, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.
This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 38.3% on threes (9th-best in the league) against the Timberwolves, creating a favorable matchup.
Luka Doncic will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home usually improves player performance across the board.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has been called for 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 1.4 more than he's been called for over the course of the season at home.
The 6th-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Mavericks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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