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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 4/10/2024

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted 49.8% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 10.2% higher than he's made from three in all games this season when playing away from home.

Compared to last year's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have jumped this year to 10.6 per game.

Luka Doncic has played 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year with respect to shots from behind the three-point arc.

Over the last 5 games, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 8.8 three attempts per game (highest in the league) against the Heat, making this a favorable matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).

The Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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