Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have risen this season to 10.2 per game.
Luka Doncic has played 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 100th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
The Miami Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has accumulated 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.8 more than he's accumulated in all games this season.
Over the last 25 games when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 2.0 three-pointers per game (7th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a hard matchup.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the slowest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Miami Heat).
The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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