Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has successfully made a whopping 41.8% of his three-point attempts this year, significantly higher than his 32.7 rate last year.
Compared to last season's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's shots from behind the three-point arc have surged this season to 9.6 per game.
Luka Doncic has tallied 33.4 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to shot attempts from downtown.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (80th percentile).
The matchup vs. the Lakers is a difficult one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PGs have shot for the 9th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (27.3%).
The Mavericks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Lakers have allowed the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court tends to lower player production in all facets of the game.