LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 1/17/2024

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 17, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2024 1:37 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has averaged 34.1 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have tallied 16.0 field goal attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, marking this as a good matchup.
The 4th-quickest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Lakers.
The Mavericks have played at the speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Out of all players in the NBA, LeBron James registers in the 93rd percentile for getting to the free-throw line, averaging an enormous 5.3 foul shots per game while at home this year.

Favors Under

LeBron James has successfully made just 9.3 shots made from the field per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 10.7 mark last year.
LeBron James has attempted a mere 5.3 3-point shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 6.8 mark last year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 1stworst in in the NBA with just 8.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Over the last 5 games, the other team has nabbed 14.2 offensive boards per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks (preserving possessions that can generate further opportunities for offense).

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