LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2024

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 11, 2024

Updated Jan 12, 2024 3:06 AM UTC

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, LeBron James ranks in the 83rd percentile for threes sunk while at home, totaling 2.1 per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, LeBron James lands in the 92nd percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 34.3 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
With respect to shooting, the Los Angeles Lakers's terrific 49.3% field goal percentage with the home court advantage ranks 3rd-most in the league over the last 20 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Phoenix Suns have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.7) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 10.7 rate, LeBron James's shots from the field hit have regressed this year to 9.4 per game.
This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied 0.9 three-pointers per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, labeling this as a tough matchup.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Lakers.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 1stworst in in the league with just 7.7 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
The matchup against Phoenix may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 3.0 free throws per game over the last 21 games when the Suns are the visiting team (10th-least in the NBA).