LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 4/11/2023

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 11, 2023

Updated Apr 12, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has converted 3.8 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this year.
LeBron James has tallied 34.4 minutes per game at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to more opportunities for the Lakers.
LeBron James has made 4.9 free throws per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's converted over the course of the year with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a tough one for shots from the field; the opposing team's starting SFs have compiled the 9th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (44.2%).
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 9 games at home.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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