Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Larry Nance Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 1:14 AM UTC

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 72.9% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 19.3% more than he's made overall this season.
Larry Nance Jr. has sunk 66.7% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games, 25.0% more than he's converted from three in all games this season.
This year, opposing teams have totaled 107.5 points per game (lowest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, resulting in a hard matchup for offensive productivity.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games as the road team.
The Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should boost possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.

Favors Under

With respect to three-point attempts, the 4th-least aggressive team in the league this year has been the Pelicans.
While at home, the Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (12.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Larry Nance Jr. is expected to suffer a drop-off in production in all stat categories on account of playing on the visting team in this game.

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