Larry Nance Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Larry Nance Jr.

F-C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Nov 6, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 2:07 AM EST

Analysis

Larry Nance Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Larry Nance Jr. slots into the 91st percentile for field goal efficiency with a an excellent 59.7% rate since the start of last season.
The 2nd-fastest tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing teams have brought down 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Nuggets (reducing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).
As a team, the Pelicans have been very successful at drawing fouls as the home team: 10th-best in the NBA since the start of last season, tallying 24.5 foul shot attempts per game.
Since the start of last season, opposing squads have attempted 22.2 foul shots per game (6th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Larry Nance Jr. has converted 22.9% of his three-point attempts away from home since the start of last season, placing him in the 15th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Larry Nance Jr. has been called for 0.1 technical fouls per game while at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to getting T'ed up.
The Pelicans have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the {OPP_TEAM}.
Larry Nance Jr. stands to experience a decrease in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of playing on the visting team in this game.