LaMelo Ball Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2023

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LaMelo Ball

NBA · Player Props

LaMelo Ball

G · Charlotte Hornets

Rebounds

Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat · Feb 25, 2023

Updated Feb 26, 2023 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

LaMelo Ball Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LaMelo Ball has posted 6.7 rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 90th percentile.
LaMelo Ball has averaged 32.2 minutes per game while at home this year, placing him in the 84th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The Charlotte Hornets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
LaMelo Ball will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally improves stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

LaMelo Ball has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 96th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Hornets.

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