Khris Middleton Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Khris Middleton

F · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Khris Middleton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last season's 12.8 clip, Khris Middleton's shots taken have spiked this season to 10.9 per game.
When it comes to shooting, the Bucks's outstanding 122.1 points per game away from home settles in as the 2nd-strongest in the league this year.
This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 40.7% on three-pointers (24th-best in the league) vs. the Heat, making this a strong matchup.
The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Heat have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Khris Middleton has tallied a mere 19.5 minutes per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 25.1 minutes per game last year.
Khris Middleton has accumulated 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated in all games this season.
The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Khris Middleton will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court generally lowers player performance in all stat categories.