Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Points - Player Prop Bet 6/9/2023

NBA · Player Props

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Jun 9, 2023

Updated Jun 9, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has converted 52.0% of his field goals over the last 5 games on the road, 6.9% higher than he's converted overall this season while playing away from home.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been on the court for 31.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 83rd percentile.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has made 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's put through the net over the course of the season without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (81st percentile).
The matchup against Miami is a tough one; when the Heat are at home, they have allowed the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs this year (14.5).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).