Josh Green Points - Player Prop Bet 1/13/2024

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Josh Green

NBA · Player Props

Josh Green

G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 13, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Green has successfully made 56.2% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 14.3% higher than he's made overall this year at home.
The 6th-fastest tempo home team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks grade out 9thbest in in the league at home with 10.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Away from home, the Pelicans have allowed the least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 19 games when they are on their home court, opposing starting SFs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (23rd-highest in the NBA) against the Pelicans, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Pelicans is a challenging one for field goal attempts; opposing starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (9.1).
The Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this contest from competing against the least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
Josh Green has converted 50.0% of his free throw attempts at home this year, putting him in the 12th percentile among all players in the league.

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