Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 4/12/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans · Apr 12, 2024

Updated Apr 13, 2024 2:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas registers in the 85th percentile for field goal efficiency while playing on the road with an impressive 54.8% rate this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing on the road.
The matchup against Trayce Jackson-Davis is a positive one for shot attempts from the field; when Jackson-Davis is playing at home other starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 12.0 field goals per game (93rd percentile).
The New Orleans Pelicans will likely get a boost in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 7th-speediest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Warriors).
Jonas Valanciunas has attempted 2.5 foul shots per game this year, placing him in the 78th percentile out of all players in the league.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 2.8% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games, 26.5% lower than he's sunk overall this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (92nd percentile).
The Pelicans have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court.
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pelicans rank 5thworst in in the league with just 8.9 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally worsens stat production for all stats.