Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 12:43 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas lands in the 84th percentile for scoring efficiency while playing on the road with a an impressive 54.5% rate this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has converted 50.0% of his treys over the last 10 games, 14.7% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to raise possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas lands in the 79th percentile for drawing fouls, averaging a colossal 2.7 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas comes in at the 92nd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a monstrous 2.8 fouls per game this year.
As it relates to three-point attempts, the 2nd-least aggressive team in the league while playing away from home this year has been the Pelicans.
The matchup vs. Kelly Olynyk is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when Olynyk is at home and defending opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a lowly 12.5% of their attempts from downtown (4th percentile).
The 5th-most lethargic pace road team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.
The Raptors have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (14.0) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).