Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 2/5/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 5, 2024

Updated Feb 6, 2024 2:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has made 7.0 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's sunk over the course of the season.
Jonas Valanciunas has made 40.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 12.2% more than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year while playing at home.
The faceoff with Jakob Poeltl registers in the 100th percentile with opposing starting Cs making an enormous 46.1% of their 3-point attempts this year.
The Pelicans are expected to see an increase in possessions today from being pitted against the 4th-fastest pace road offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Toronto Raptors).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 10thbest in in the NBA while playing at home with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game at home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
In terms of shooting, the New Orleans Pelicans's feeble 107.2 points per game rates 4th-lowest in the league over the last 5 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 20 games.
Over the last 15 games, opposing clubs have nabbed 11.7 offensive rebounds per game (5th-highest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors (saving possessions that can create added opportunities for offense).
The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs against Jakob Poeltl has been quite low this year (2.7 foul shot attempts per game: 18th percentile).