Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 8, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 60.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games at home, 29.4% more than he's made from 3-point range overall this season with the home court advantage.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The Knicks have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Knicks may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a colossal 4.2 free throws per game over the last 10 games (23rd-most in the league).
Jonas Valanciunas will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally increases player performance across the board.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has attempted just 10.3 shots per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 12.6 mark last season.
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The matchup vs. the Knicks is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting Cs have totaled the 15th-least buckets per game in the NBA this year (4.8).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Knicks have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Pelicans.