Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 60.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 29.4% higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this season when playing at home.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Kings is a positive one for scoring; opposing starting Cs have shot for the 25th-highest field goal rate in the NBA this year (61.7%).
The Kings have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road, which should boost possessions for the Pelicans.
Away from home, the Kings have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has tallied 3.0 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 9th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made a mere 2.4 foul shots per game this season, significantly less than his 3.2 rate last season.

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