Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 24, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 8.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.8 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.
Jonas Valanciunas has made 58.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games, 24.8% more than he's made in all games this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has attempted 4.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (which can also create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Nuggets have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (which also create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league (95th percentile).
The matchup against the Nuggets may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; opposing clubs have attempted a mere 28.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (5th-least in the NBA).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a challenging one for threes; without the home court advantage, opposing squads have posted the 5th-lowest three rate in the league this year (37.9%).
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year when it comes to attempts from downtown.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.