John Collins Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2023

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John Collins

NBA · Player Props

John Collins

F-C · Atlanta Hawks

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 4, 2023

Updated Mar 5, 2023 1:02 AM UTC

Analysis

John Collins Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +126 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

John Collins has played 29.8 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 81st percentile.
The matchup against Miami is a strong one for 3-point attempts; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 27th-most three attempts per game in the league since the start of last season (4.8).
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

John Collins has failed to convert 2.6 three-point attempts per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 higher than he's missed from beyond the arc over the course of the year on the road.
John Collins has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 10th-least aggressive offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year as it relates to 3-point attempts.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Hawks.

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