Jerami Grant Points - Player Prop Bet 11/26/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jerami Grant

F · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Portland Trail Blazers · Nov 26, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jerami Grant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jerami Grant has attempted 17.4 shots from the field per game this season, a big improvement over his 14.5 rate last season.
Jerami Grant has made 3.4 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jerami Grant lands in the 94th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 34.9 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
The Portland Trail Blazers will likely see a rise in plays today from competing against the 2nd-fastest tempo home team in the league this year (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers rank 8thbest in in the NBA on the road with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

In regard to offense, the Trail Blazers's poor 104.4 points per game as the away team ranks worst in the league this year.
The matchup against Milwaukee is a challenging one; when the Milwaukee Bucks are the visiting team, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PFs this year (10.6).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks have allowed the 9th-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (12th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.