Jayson Tatum Assists - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2024

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Assists

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Feb 11, 2024

Updated Feb 12, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has posted 6.4 assists per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's posted over the course of the year.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 98th percentile.
The Celtics have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 9thbest in in the NBA while on the road with 11.3 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing teams have secured 8.9 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise result in bonus opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has been called for 0.3 technical fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.1 higher than he's been called for overall this season.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home city, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.
Jayson Tatum will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road usually lowers player production in all stat categories.

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