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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 12/2/2024

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Brown has converted 3.8 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's sunk in all games this season.

Out of all players in the NBA, Jaylen Brown ranks in the 95th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 35.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year.

The Celtics check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for 3-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3).

Compared to last season's 4.5 rate, Jaylen Brown's number of foul shots has spiked this season to 6.8 foul shots per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jaylen Brown has missed 11.1 shot attempts from the field per game this season, a significant increase from his 8.9 rate last season.

The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA while playing at home this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have attempted 1.0 foul shots per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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