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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 5/1/2024

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Brown has made 9.0 baskets per game this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Jaylen Brown has sunk 3.1 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.8 more than he's sunk overall this year when playing at home.

Jaylen Brown has been on the court for 32.7 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 87th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.

The matchup against Miami is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Heat are on the road, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).

The Celtics check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Celtics.

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA while traveling this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Boston Celtics.

As a team, the Celtics have been bad at getting to the foul line in recent games: worst in the NBA over the last 15 games, tallying a lowly 16.3 free throw attempts per game.

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