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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 2/11/2024

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Jaylen Brown lands in the 87th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc, posting 5.6 per game this year.

Jaylen Brown has been on the court for 33.2 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 89th percentile.

The matchup against the Heat is a strong one for shot attempts from the field; opposing starting SFs have tallied the 24th-most FG attempts per game in the league this year (12.2).

The Celtics have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 9thbest in in the NBA while on the road with 11.3 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jaylen Brown has made a measly 8.6 buckets per game this season, quite a bit less than his 9.9 mark last season.

Jaylen Brown has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (89th percentile).

The rate of shots from downtown made against Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been very low (31.6%) when guarding other starting SFs this year (23rd percentile).

The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home city, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.

Jaylen Brown stands to see a decline in productivity across the board as a result of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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