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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 5/29/2023

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Brown has made an impressive 9.9 buckets per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 8.6 rate last year.

Jaylen Brown has converted 45.6% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games at home, 13.6% higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season when playing at home.

Jaylen Brown has tallied 35.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 97th percentile.

The matchup against the Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.9).

The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jaylen Brown has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.2 higher than he's averaged overall this season at home.

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Celtics.

As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls in recent games: worst in the NBA over the last 25 games, drawing a measly 19.9 free throw attempts per game.

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.5 foul shots per game this year (11th-least in the NBA).

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