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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 5/23/2023

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots from the field per game this season, a big improvement over his 18.2 rate last season.

Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among all players in the NBA.

Jaylen Brown has tallied 35.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 97th percentile.

The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup vs. Miami is a hard one; when the Heat are on their home court, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SGs this year (14.8).

The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Celtics.

As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls while on the road: worst in the NBA this year with a mere 20.0 free throw attempts per game.

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (10th-least in the NBA).

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