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Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown Points
Player Prop - 5/21/2023

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the league.

Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the NBA.

Jaylen Brown has tallied 35.8 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 98th percentile.

The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while playing away from home.

The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jaylen Brown has tallied 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's tallied in all games this season on the road.

The matchup against Miami is a hard one for field goals; when the Heat have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot for the 15th-lowest FG% in the NBA this year (40.8%).

The Boston Celtics have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 10 games.

The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.

The Boston Celtics check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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