Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 17, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has attempted 9.6 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, 2.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the year at home.
Jamal Murray has been on the court for 32.3 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
The matchup vs. Minnesota is a favorable one for field goals; when the Timberwolves are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 30th-most baskets per game in the league this year (7.5).
The Timberwolves have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should increase plays for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the free throw line: 7th-worst in the NBA this year with a measly 22.4 foul shot attempts per game.

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