Jamal Murray Assists - Player Prop Bet 6/7/2023

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Assists

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Jun 7, 2023

Updated Jun 7, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has tallied 6.2 assists per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 96th percentile.
Jamal Murray has tallied 41.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.9 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease possessions for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jamal Murray will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lowers player performance across the board.

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