Jalen Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Williams

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 3:29 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Williams has converted 68.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games, 26.5% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season.
Out of all players in the league, Jalen Williams slots into the 83rd percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 31.8 minutes per game this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Hawks is a favorable one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 28th-highest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (54.1%).
The Thunder have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

Jalen Williams has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with just 8.2 offensive boards per game this year.
The Hawks have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the NBA to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games, the other team has attempted 24.1 foul shots per game (9th-highest in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, finding it easy to draw fouls.
Jalen Williams will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually worsens stat production for all stats.