Jalen Suggs Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2024

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Jalen Suggs

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Suggs

G · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Jan 21, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 11:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Suggs Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Suggs has sunk 7.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.5 higher than he's converted in all games this season with the home court advantage.
Jalen Suggs has successfully made 3.1 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
This year, opposing starting SGs have averaged 6.3 3-point attempts per game (30th-highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a good matchup.
The Orlando Magic check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jalen Suggs will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home city usually improves player production across the board.

Favors Under

Jalen Suggs has been called for 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.8 higher than he's been called for in all games this season at home.
The Orlando Magic have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games.
The Orlando Magic have played at the most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 10 games.
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Orlando Magic.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have come down with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (6th-most in the NBA) against the Heat (lengthening possessions that can spark more opportunities for offense).

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